This economic collapse is much worse than you think

The cycle I saw occurred when I saw three important forces that I had not seen in my life before, but that happened many times in history, so I had to study them first that cycle for the last 500 years. when governments run out. money they need more money than they can get they print a lot of money and basically it is the money we have had the biggest debt increases and money creations, especially in the world’s main reserve currency, the dollar, although this it has been true in the euro and it is. In the end it has also been true and this has a great effect, the second of these influences is really a political and social influence, which is the conflict between left and right populism, often due to the large gaps in wealth. and opportunities that exist in the Union. states now and so you’re watching a conflict you’re watching almost a civil war because as you have populism, populism is made up of representatives who will fight instead of compromising the fight for their way of doing things and so we have some ideological and economic differences that they are also political differences that could be seen every day reflected in the news and it became clear on January 6 that the issue of losing I think we are in a situation where we can have an election in which neither side agrees to lose and so we see that reflected all the time as the Supreme Court ruling on abortion sees this type of conflict conflicting the measures I like to measure things is the biggest since 1900 and that is also related to the I touched on and then the third in terms of world order change is the relative decline of the United States and the rise of China and other countries, for example India, for of course, it has improved its position many countries so that when the new world order began in 1945 the world orders come after a war and then the victors of that war determine how things should be in 1945, when the united states won the war, it was the richest country in the world, it had 80 of the world’s gold and gold was money and it had half the economy half of world GDP and had the monopoly of the military power was the dominant world power and so we have the United Nations in New York, the IMF and the World Bank in Washington DC and this relative positioning there has been a decrease in ‘this relative positioning and the emergence particularly of China as a great power. and so there is a great competition of power and traditionally through history that is resolved through conflict, so we have five different types of wars going on and we see them now a trade war, a technological war, a war of geopolitical influences, a capital war and a military war possibilities for the confluence to produce these difficult periods, the last one was from 1930 to 1945 and this is what we are in the middle of, so it is very important for me as a global macroinvestor understand them and that’s why I did this study, it affects my position today, the most important thing is not to have debt assets that are subject to inflationary pressures if you buy an inflation rate asset that would be good, they are good inflation rate, but do not own assets that will lose their purchasing power because there is a lot of debt and they have to be printed, the second is to create a well-balanced diversified asset portfolio if you diversify well and observe the s correlations between the asset classes you have. I will see that one thing goes up, another goes down, for example, during times of higher inflation, you see the prices of raw materials, the prices of real estate, gold, you see that these types of assets work better at the expense of other assets and also the stock market has shares in the shares. market these different stock markets that will not be affected mainly by investments, there are many that benefit from inflation, so creating a diversified portfolio is a parameter. It matters because it is the way to maintain a good return without so much risk, that is, if you choose investments which have about the same expected return but are not correlated and put them together well, you can reduce up to 80 of your risk without reducing your return, so how to create good diversification is very important and this includes country diversification, all currencies are now fiat currencies, the dollar is of course the main reserve currency in the world, they are related to each other, no country wants in this environment of relative depression or relative lower prosperity no country wants to see its currency goes up too much, so they tend to trust coins this is usually a good amount of print money and then a reduction of that, we are in a time period that I would say will probably last between six and twelve months of hardening of monetary policy, but this will be the correction of the trend. This restriction will produce a weakness in the markets, followed by a weakness in the economy, followed by another round of relief, so I want to be clear about the impression of money. n the large debt will have a correction, as this hardening approaches, which will probably be over the next six or 12 months, you will have that, as a storehouse of wealth, they will not bring interest rates during this hardening to a level. this will offset inflation, so you’ll still lose money on inflation, which means it’s even better in these inflation header chassis, so when we look at currencies we’re used to looking at them in relation to each other, but they all have that. Gold is not an example of a non-fiduciary currency and of course we have digital currencies that have been developed recently and this is a non-fiduciary currency, I think we have come in for a period of time. the next few years in which the world will look for what is an acceptable currency and it will be confusing and therefore these currencies will compete with each other, there will be less attention to fiat currencies and more attention than others, but not bad, of course, the dollar will be important and then you will see that the rest becomes a much more important currency. Gold, let me tell you about gold as a generalization. Gold has a yield is usually low, it is a dead asset, it is a beautiful limited. supply debt asset which is money as opposed to, say, stocks in which there is constant invention and productivity but it is very important to have it at times and other times it will only be a dead asset and these moments are not times of much debt and money creation and time of conflict time of war in war, even allied countries do not want to lend to the other country because everyone is in debt and therefore will be returned with a depreciated currency if they win the war, so I think this environment in which we find ourselves is a good environment for gold and therefore should be an important part of the portfolio, but not a dominant part of the portfolio, what this might mean maybe 15 of the portfolio that would be, you know a fairly large allocation in the current circumstances, maybe you know as much as that and then there should be other assets that diversify the portfolio. I’m sure the amount is unlike other types of currencies in which there is variability, such as stable or ethereal coins, but surprisingly anyway they were programmed and worked for 11 years, I think now they haven’t been pirated and so on and have been acquired there are still problems with them, the total value of bitcoin, for example, all this money is less than the value of Microsoft and therefore when you think of different wealth stores, it is not much big, by the way, the gold market is not very big either, it is about five times bigger if you take out reserves and jewelry from the central bank so that they have problems, transactions can be tracked, so the privacy issue is a problem so they can’t be controlled, they can be closed, they can become illegal, which usually happens at times when they can be threats to the alternative currency, I don’t think they remain as reserves of the ce bank ntral for several reasons. a saying that gold is the only asset you can have that is not someone else’s responsibility, i.e. you own it and you don’t have to wait for someone else’s payment and I think as an environment in which we find ourselves There is a risk of political confiscation or other forms of gold confiscation, you know a better job, but as I say, we are in this new environment, it is something you can take with you and that you can negotiate almost anywhere in the world? because someone will buy it and it is equally acceptable in most places, ideally private if you can find these things, it is a competitor, but I think that in terms of its qualities not as good as a competitor, one of the most important indicators is the cost of a smart person. cour The fact of an educated person who is a very good leading indicator, India is doing very well in this regard and its debt levels, which is another important indicator, is relatively good compared to other countries , these are two important indicators the general level of education and infrastructure and internal conflicts, among others, are areas of greatest concern, and so is the element of bureaucracy, it is a country that will probably have the rate of highest growth over the next 10 years, we projected that it would have the highest growth rate in any country over the next 10 years. because of the advantages of these things that I have mentioned and as far as there are improvements in those that seem to be ongoing improvements, the outlook for India looks very good.